Earlier this week, I was reading the New York Times’ “Morning” newsletter. The day’s topic was the economy and while all indicators seem to be pointing to hand-clapping good news (unemployment is down, inflation is down, wages are up), Americans as a whole remain dour about their economic future. While the writer outlines several reasons for this, a “bad news” bias in the news, he suggests, may be partly to blame. Well, I am here to counter. 

After speaking with John O’Brien, Executive Director of the West Chester Business Improvement District, earlier this month I am feeling pretty darn positive. Actually, to say things are looking good for downtown West Chester may be an understatement.

By all the measures that Downtown West Chester has been tasked with – increasing customer traffic and sales, expanding and recruiting viable businesses, and promoting the interest of downtown to government agencies – things seem to be going gangbusters. Last year multiple retail businesses, always a bit of a difficult sector, reported single-day sales records. Much of that was due to the newly relocated Christkindlmrkt, which will be back this year. At the same time, pandemic issues such as staffing shortages and supply chain issues have been easing.  Even though “restaurant inflation” seems to be the latest battle to arise on the monetary front, Pennsylvania, so far anyway, has not had much of a fight. 

According to figures analyzed by USA Today, restaurant spending in Pennsylvania increased a relatively modest 3 percent from November 2022 to June 2023. This is compared to 20 percent jumps seen in Colorado, Arizona, Arkansas, and elsewhere. These big jumps have led consumers to cut back their nights out. Perhaps because we have not seen the same level of inflation, we have also not seen a booking decline. Restaurant reservations in PA actually rose one percent during this time.  

Another way the downtown business district measures its health is available rental space. Well, West Chester – at least on the ground floor – is nearly all booked. “There are three properties with first-floor space that are actively being marketed for lease,” said John.  

In addition to 9 Prime opening at 9 N. High St. and an expansion of Turks Head Wines at 120 N. Church this summer, there are new restaurants planned for the ground floor of the Spence building (29 E. Gay St.) and the new Hotel Indigo (corner of Gay and Walnut Streets). There are, of course, still a few options available. The Classic Diner (16 E. Gay St.) is one as is the former home of G&G Cigars (118 N. High St.), and, what I am calling “ground floor west” of 44 West is still looking for a tenant. 

“It’s 5000 sq. ft. with a liquor license and beautiful courtyard. It’s an excellent space,” John says, slipping into salesman mode. However, first-floor retail is not what has John concerned if a four percent vacancy rate can even be deemed concerning.

“The only challenge I see is in office leasing,” said John. 

The challenge of a good economy

While perhaps not perfect, a four percent vacancy rate is a far cry from the office inventory crisis currently wreaking havoc on other U.S. cities. According to Moody’s Analytics, the national office vacancy rate rose to a record-breaking 19.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023. 

“Our office inventory isn’t bad we just don’t want to go the way of other cities,” said John. In a Borough like West Chester, that change could come with the departure of a few big renters.

So, really, if a four percent vacancy rate is our current economic worry, perhaps it’s time to start turning that financial frown upside down? 

“We ended 2023 in a great space,” said John. “I think we have a good economy. From the economic data we review, I do not see a recession in the forecast,” he said. Then he quickly reminded me to remind you of your role in making sure that forecast bears out. 

“Our message continues to be “Shop Local’,” he said. Even when all signs point to yes, it’s hard to forget how quickly an economy can change. 

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Originally published on Jan. 26, 2024

This story was part of a longer West Chester newsletter featuring all the news and events of the week. Curious what else is going on? Subscribe now to get the full story. New issue comes out Friday.